About this Market

Recent forecast models from sources including the Met Office and GFS runs indicate a maximum temperature of 18–20°C in London on September 28 under mostly cloudy skies with light northeast winds and low precipitation risk. This aligns with the market-implied odds, where 19°C leads at 41% and 18°C follows at 29%, reflecting trader consensus on typical late-September conditions near the seasonal average high. Minor model variations in cloud cover or wind direction could nudge the peak by 1–2°C, while the short time horizon to resolution limits major shifts unless a sudden pressure change develops. Updated guidance ahead of the date will likely refine these probabilities.