About this Market

Singapore's ongoing southwest monsoon drives afternoon convection and localized thundery showers that frequently limit peak heating, positioning 31°C as the market leader at 39.5% implied probability. Official NEA outlooks note typical July maxima of 33–34°C under clear conditions, but variable cloud cover and short-duration storms—common through mid-July—reduce insolation and keep readings clustered near 30–32°C, as reflected in the tight 27–28.5% odds on adjacent outcomes. Recent station data showing highs near 32.8°C alongside persistent humidity reinforce trader focus on shower timing and intensity as the key variables ahead of July 22 resolution.