About this Market

Persistent southwest monsoon activity across Luzon is the primary driver keeping market-implied odds tightly clustered around 29–31°C for Manila’s September 4 high, with 30°C and 31°C each near 23–24% implied probability. Widespread cloud cover, scattered to frequent thunderstorms, and moderate-to-strong southwesterly winds limit daytime solar heating while enhancing evaporative cooling, holding maxima near or slightly below the 30–31°C climatological average. PAGASA short-range guidance and ensemble runs show limited model spread on this pattern through the period, though small timing differences in heaviest rain could shift the peak by 1°C. El Niño background conditions add minor long-term warmth but exert little influence on this two-day horizon.