About this Market

Forecast consensus from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and global models places the September 4 high for the Incheon/Seoul area at 29–30 °C under a strengthening high-pressure ridge with northeasterly flow. Clear to mostly sunny skies and light-to-moderate winds (6–10 m/s) favor strong daytime heating without significant cloud cover or precipitation to suppress temperatures. Recent KMA short-term guidance and ensemble runs show minimal spread, with afternoon peaks consistently projected near 29–30 °C after morning lows in the low 20s; minor model differences center on exact wind strength and boundary-layer mixing rather than major shifts. Historical September climatology for Incheon supports highs in this range during early-month high-pressure regimes, positioning the market’s heavy weighting toward 30 °C (48 %) and 29 °C (26 %) as a direct reflection of stable, high-confidence guidance two days before resolution.